With just five games to go & the Easter weekend almost over, I would suggest It's time to take a look at who is in the mix at the bottom of the table & take a look at what we can hope/expect to see.
Lets start with the bottom two Doncaster & Portsmouth. They are both already relegated in all but name, sorry but they are. Job done, lets move on.
If we take a quick look at the three teams directly above Forest we have Millwall, Barnsley & Peterborough. The latter two are probably already safe being 7 & 8 points clear of relegation respectively & with Bristol City & Coventry playing each other on Monday it would take automatic promotion form for the losing side in that fixture to overtake them. Millwall aren't quite so certain of safety yet but being 5 points clear at the moment they probably only need one more win to be assured of safety. They should pick that up with three of their remaining 5 games being away at Portsmouth, Ipswich, & Coventry.
So, one final relegation place left realistically & 3 teams fighting to avoid it.
Lets start with the team with most to do.
Coventry currently on 39 pts
Remaining fixtures: Bristol city (A), Birmingham (A), Millwall (H), Doncaster (H) & Southampton (A)
There are obviously two very tough fixtures in there & you would expect a return of zero points from the Brum & Southampton away games. A 4 - 6 point haul from the two home fixtures seems more than plausible as their home form isn't actually too bad (it's their single away win that has seen them down at the bottom). I'll leave the Bristol City game for the next set of fixtures we'll look at.
Bristol City currently on 40pts
Remaining fixtures: Coventry (H), Birmingham (A), West Ham (H), Barnsley (H) & Burnley (A).
Again there are two very tough games in there having to face Birmingham and West Ham & you would say a return of zero points from those is the only sensible prediction while similarly to Coventry there are also two fixtures that could quite plausibly see a return of between 4 and 6 points as I see the home tie v Barnsley as perfectly winnable & the final day fixture away at Burnley would depend very much on whether the Burnley heads are on the pitch or the beech, I suspect the latter.
So that leaves the Bristol City v Coventry City fixture. Having seen both teams at the City Ground recently, I would have to say that despite Forest losing to the Robins & beating the Sky Blues, that Cov were the better side, Bristol City were truly woeful, possibly the worst team I've seen this season. When All said & done, when you look at the recent form, home advantage & team confidence though, I can only come up with a home win. This would give Bristol City 9 points & Coventry 6 by the end of the season.
From there, the maths are simple. Forest are 4 points clear of Coventry at the moment, the teams below picking up 9 (Bristol) & 6 (Coventry) points would leave Forest needing just 3 points for safety.
Nottingham Forest currently on 43 pts
Remaining Fixtures: Peterborough (A), Blackpool (H), Reading (A), Hull (A) & Portsmouth (H)
Again, there are two very tough fixtures in there & you would expect given the form guide & relative positions of the teams, the Blackpool & Reading games look like defeats. Peterborough looks winnable but a draw more likely & so the away fixture at Hull probably offers our best chance of three points ahead of a final day show down with Pompey. Hull have lost all of the last 5 games including defeats to Coventry, Millwall & Portsmouth. It seems the Tigers have given up on their season well in advance of everyone else.
That would have give us the points we need to secure safety by my predictions ahead of our 46th league game at home to Portsmouth. I sincerely hope we have secured safety by then because this game worries me immensely. They will be relegated by then & they could be in the position of knowing had it not been for the 10 point deduction they would have been safe & like the wounded beast that knows it's time has come I expect them to take one final nasty bite. If they 'could' send us down with a win, I expect them to give just a little more to the cause & try to take us down with them.
My final league table for the bottom 5
20: Bristol City 49
21: Forest 47
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22: Coventry City 45
23: Portsmouth 41
24: Doncaster 36
Far closer than we'd all like, but I think we'll survive by a single point
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